AI Hype Cycle: Peak or Just Begi ing? Tom Chavez Discusses the Reality of AI in Marketing

Introduction

In a thought-provoking conversation on the MarTech Podcast, Tom Chavez, Founding General Partner at super{set}, shares his perspective on the current state of AI in marketing and whether we're approaching the peak of the hype cycle or just getting started. As a serial entrepreneur who has built and sold companies to tech giants like Salesforce and Microsoft, Chavez brings valuable insights from his experience developing data-driven AI applications that deliver practical business results rather than just theoretical possibilities.

The Current State of AI in Marketing

According to Chavez, we're still in an upward trajectory in the AI hype cycle, approaching what he calls "the saddle point that takes us into the trough of despair." This assessment stems from the observation that the industry lacks clear organizing distinctions and frameworks for understanding what truly constitutes agentic AI systems. The marketing technology landscape is filled with various AI tools and applications, but there's still considerable confusion about their capabilities and limitations.

Compound AI Systems vs. Autonomous Agents

One of the key distinctions Chavez makes is between compound AI systems and truly autonomous agents. What many marketers are currently using are compound AI systems—combinations of different tools and applications that each handle specific tasks. While these systems provide real value, they're still far from achieving true autonomy where an AI agent can independently execute complex marketing workflows without human intervention. "That's for real, that's valuable, that's some distance away still, as all of these systems are from true autonomy, true hands-free, have the agent go do the thing while I go to sleep or have a martini," notes Chavez.

The Evolution Timeline

Both Chavez and host Benjamin Shapiro agree that we're still in the early stages of AI development for marketing applications. Shapiro describes our current position as "in the foothills... still in our first lift line of the day going up the mountain." The current state of AI in marketing is primarily focused on assisting with "last mile" work—helping marketers execute specific tasks more efficiently rather than taking over entire workflows.

The Path to Agentic AI

The conversation suggests that truly agentic AI—systems that can not only execute tasks but also build infrastructure and develop processes independently—may be five to ten years away. This next evolution will move beyond simply helping with execution to actually engineering solutions and automating entire workflows. For marketers, this means the current focus should be on integrating AI tools strategically into existing processes while preparing for more transformative capabilities in the future.

Practical Implications for Marketers

For marketing professionals navigating this evolving landscape, the key takeaway is to maintain realistic expectations while still leveraging the significant benefits available from current AI technologies. Rather than waiting for fully autonomous marketing AI, the more practical approach is to identify specific use cases where compound AI systems can deliver immediate value—whether in content creation, audience analysis, campaign optimization, or other marketing functions.

Conclusion

The AI marketing revolution is still in its early stages, with significant developments yet to come. As Chavez's insights reveal, marketers should approach AI with both enthusiasm and pragmatism—recognizing its current limitations while preparing for its expanding capabilities. By understanding the distinction between today's compound AI systems and tomorrow's truly agentic AI, marketing leaders can make strategic decisions about where and how to invest in artificial intelligence technologies that deliver genuine business impact rather than just following the hype.